In today’s fast-paced world of technology and business solutions, snake oil salesmen are still alive and well–they’ve just swapped their jungle carts for slick marketing brochures and webinars. What used to be snake oil, sold to frightened villagers in isolated parts of the world, has become a metaphor for scams, hyped products, and false promises. But it’s important to remember where this all started and why the story of snake oil remains so relevant.
The origin of the term “snake oil” is far more fascinating than many realize. Since decades ago, traveling salesmen would venture into remote, snake-infested areas, selling oils they claimed would protect against snake bites–an abject fear for villagers who faced deadly encounters regularly. These salesmen thrived on fear, offering a solution in the form of an oil that, unsurprisingly, didn’t work.
But here’s the thing: people thought it did. And that’s where the deception takes root.
Why Did Snake Oil Seem to Work?
The key to understanding this lies in statistics. Only about 25% of snake bites are fatal, but the villagers didn’t know that. So, when someone applied snake oil after being bitten and survived–three-quarters of the time–they credited the oil. The remaining deaths were explained away by excuses: the oil wasn’t applied soon enough, it was the wrong kind, or fate simply intervened. Meanwhile, the snake oil salesmen continued to rake in sales, completely unfazed by their product’s ineffectiveness.
This is how the snake oil industry thrived, and the sad truth is that it wasn’t just a minor scam–it was a massive industry, exploiting fear, ignorance, and hope in many parts of the world.
The Snake Oil Experiment: An Evidence-Based Showdown.
So, what happens when snake oil is pitted against science? Imagine this: a village full of frightened people, surrounded by deadly snakes, is visited by a new salesman–a legitimate pharmaceutical company like Pfizer. Pfizer has developed a proven, FDA-approved antidote for snake venom, tested in rigorous clinical trials. The villagers are skeptical, but the results speak for themselves.
Now, imagine the experiment: The snake oil salesman, who knows full well that his product is useless, is invited to participate in a televised test. He and a volunteer will both be bitten by random snakes from the jungle. He’ll be protected by his snake oil, the volunteer will be protected by Pfizer’s FDA approved product. The villagers gather to watch the spectacle, cameras roll, and what happens?
The snake oil salesman will refuse. Why? Because he knows he’d likely die. Despite his bravado, he’s fully aware that his “miracle cure” is just a bottle of coconut oil or, at best, engine oil. He won’t take the risk, because it’s all a scam. And, more importantly, he knows it.
But Pfizer’s antidote works, and it works again, and again. The test subjects survive, and the villagers–finally armed with evidence are awakened to the truth. The snake oil salesman slinks away, his scam exposed, his industry in ruins. The cameras record the slinking away.
The FP&A Tools Salesmen: A Modern Twist.
Fast forward to today, and the FP&A – Financial Planning & Analysis – tools industry is rife with its own version of snake oil. There’s a booming industry of FP&A tool vendors and consultants who peddle shiny new software and methodologies that promise to revolutionize your financial processes. They say that Excel is useless as a business tool in larger applications. They flood the market with claims that their tools will provide the ultimate solution for forecasting, budgeting, and analysis. The truth? Much of it is nothing more than snake oil. When tested in a scientifically controlled test, you can see that with Excel we can do that easier, quicker, with greater flexibility, and in-house. In other words, better.
These vendors often present themselves as experts, pushing tools and techniques that may look good in demos but collapse under the weight of real-world business complexity. They sell solutions to problems they don’t fully understand, or worse, solutions that don’t address the real issues at hand. Just like the original snake oil salesmen, they’re selling fear-based, hyped-up nonsense without empirical backing. They’re selling to an audience that fundamentally fear Excel, and having to think.
The Mission Impossible Series: A Call for Evidence.
This is where the *Mission Impossible* series comes in. We’re setting the stage for our own showdown, calling out the snake oil salesmen in the FP&A tools industry. We’ve already started testing some of the popular claims, and the results are eye-opening. Whenever we throw down the gauntlet for these so-called experts in FP&A to prove their claims in a rigorous, transparent, evidence-based way–just like in the snake oil experiment–they disappear. Not a word. No defence. They slither back into the jungle of industry events and LinkedIn posts and webinars, hoping no one notices.
This isn’t just about calling out fraud; it’s about creating change. In the FP&A space, just like in the villages of old, real, tested solutions are desperately needed. There’s a billion-dollar industry of tools and training built on the false claim of ‘you can’t do this with Excel’, and it’s time to shine a light on that.
Conclusion: Demand Evidence, Not Hype.
The lesson here is simple: demand evidence. In the world of FP&A tools, as in any industry, flashy marketing and trendy techniques are worthless without empirical testing. The snake oil salesmen may be able to sell a few subscriptions for a while, but eventually, the truth will come out. And when it does, those who have built their reputations on gimmicks and hype will slink away, leaving behind the genuine experts who are truly changing the game.
We challenge the FP&A tools industry to stop selling snake oil and start promoting tested, proven solutions. Because when the cameras are rolling, when the businesses are watching, the only thing that matters is what works. The rest is just noise–and eventually, that noise will fade.
Above all, we invite the FP&A Tools industry to the Excel Mission Impossible series. Let’s see if they come.
This was a podcast by Hiran de Silva. Read by Bill.
See also:
‘Nine Circles of Excel Hell’ by Workday Adaptive Planning. An example of negative claims against Excel and setting up an ineffective alternative as the antidote. TBA
Articles on WSJ in November 2017, July 2021. TBA
Add comment